After the Driest Period in 1200 Years, La Niña Weakens its Grip

 Although the winter of 2020 - 2021 was exceedingly dry, it is really part of a larger story that has been building for many years.  The image shown here zooms out to show the recent dry years in perspective, showing the nearly continuous low rainfall, punctuated by the occasional heavy year.  An animated map showing drought areas and their severity may be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/historical-palmers/



While things are already getting somewhat dire in some areas, it is worthwhile to consider some historical perspective.  The past 20 years may be the beginning of what some call a "mega drought".  Just how "mega" can a mega drought become?  Based on tree ring analysis, researchers have determined that droughts in the past have gone on as long as 90 years.  What's more, these patterns do not occur on a time scale of tens of thousands of years, and instead occur every couple of hundred years.  One such event dates to the 1500s, covering the central US, but affecting the entire North American continent at various times.  This event lasted 40 years in some areas, and appears to be a contributor to the abandoning of many Native American sites dating to this period.

Around the turn of the first millennium, tree ring studies indicate that California experienced a drought from 900AD to 1300AD.  Tree ring records also indicate that during certain periods of this drought, conditions were so extreme in California that the driest year in our current climate was wetter than the wettest year at that time.

Fortunately for us, the current La Niña is forecast to weaken, and has a less than 50% chance of returning in the winter.  Although "less than 50% chance" of returning does not mean we're out of the woods, it does give us hope for a more normal rain pattern this upcoming rainy season.  However, even though La Niña may dissipate, there is no guarantee the rain will return.  Rain patterns tend to be "sticky", where a pattern tends to persist for several years running.  The El Niño of 2015-2016 was followed by the (non-El Niño) 2016-2017 year that was one of the wettest on record.  The dry year of 2018-2019 was followed by the very dry season of 2019-2020, and the exceptionally dry season of 2020-2021.

Time will tell, but for now, a less than 50% chance of La Niña in 2021-2022 is reason for hope.

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