La Niña is Coming!

No doubt, we all remember the drought of 2011-2014, in which California experienced the driest years on record.  During these extremely dry years, certain California towns literally ran out of water, and had to rely on bottled water for drinking and cooking, and communal toilet and wash stations.  NPR even reported that during the worst years, certain aquifers were dropping at a rate of up to 10 feet per week!  Naturally, household use only explains so much of this extreme water use, and the majority of the water is used for agricultural purposes.  Due to the highly predictable and mild summer California days, low pest pressure, and millions of acres of fertile soils, California is in a position to grow many high-value crops that don't fit naturally into other regions.  Because of this, California agricultural land is now seen as a highly sought-after commodity, where even hedge funds have begun to buy up land for long term investments in high-value (and generally high water use) crops.

Citizens in Porterville, receiving a delivery of water after wells went dry during the drought.


Although we've had several good rain years since the drought, we may well be running out of luck.  The 2019-2020 rain season was well below average, including a February (normally one of our wettest months) with almost zero precipitation.  Now the National Weather Service is predicting a 50-55% chance of a La Niña event in the 2020-2021 season.  During a La Niña event, the eastern Pacific sees higher barometric pressures (less rain), and the prevailing winds tend to move from east to west (toward Indonesia).  Levels of precipitation in California tend to decrease, and we begin drawing down our reservoirs throughout the following summer.



Because Turning Leaf Ranch is run almost exclusively on rain water, we are quite vulnerable to a La Niña event, but we are taking steps now to ensure the farm may thrive in dry years or in wet.  Stay tuned in future newsletters to see how we're "drought-proofing" the farm to prepare for the lean years.




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